25.05.2024 / News

Democratic Challenge in Ukraine

The BRICS International Forum in partnership with an international team of researchers initiated an online survey in order to evaluate the current situation in the war-torn Ukraine and understand the opinions of the people in the country seeking for the resolution for the conflict shaking up the global area.

The presidential election in Ukraine scheduled for May 2024 was canceled due to the military conflict.

The key tasks of the survey were to estimate the role of the elections and democratic procedures in the perception of the citizens and their attitude towards the political landscape and the trends in the society that would assist in understanding of possible paths for the crisis resolution.

While the president of the country, Volodimir Zelensky, insists that carrying out democratic procedures is impossible under the current circumstances, the research posed questions regarding the opinion and understanding of the people, the majority of which supported him and his program back in 2020, when hostilities were already a part of the agenda in the east and southeast of Ukraine.

The study was conducted from 18 to 21 May 2024 using the CATI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) method.

Representation of the survey was ensured by strict fulfillment of quotas calculated on the basis of data on regional and sex and age composition of the population obtained from official documents. of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Residents of all regions of Ukraine took part in the survey.

The sample size was 1,000 respondents

I. Attitudes towards the presidential elections in Ukraine and their cancellation in 2024:

General elections have traditionally been perceived by the European community as a fundamental

The poll showed that many Ukrainians perceive the elections in the same way as they do in Europe.

"How do you feel about the following statement: presidential elections are one of the main signs of democracy in a country, allowing the people to influence the politics and future of the country?"

Half of the respondents (46.4%) agreed that "presidential elections are one of the main signs of democracy in the country, allowing the population to influence the policy and future of the country". Only for 18.8% of Ukrainian residents, elections are not the main sign of democracy. About a third of the population (34.8%) found it difficult to answer about the role of elections.

The survey asked about people's attitudes towards the review of compliance with the Human Rights Convention and the likely cancellation of elections. "At the end of April 2024, the Ukrainian government reviewed compliance with the Human Rights Convention and questioned the need for general elections. How do you feel about the idea of cancelling the election of the President of Ukraine?"

More than half of the respondents (55.6 per cent) believe that human rights are the most important value and that presidential elections should be held no matter what.

A quarter of respondents (24.2 per cent) tend to believe that in the current situation human rights should take a back seat and elections should be cancelled. 20.2 per cent of Ukrainian citizens found it difficult to answer this question.

In order to disclose the topic, a question was also asked, the wording of which included the most common expert opinions in the public discourse: "Experts in favour of the cancellation of general elections in Ukraine refer to the fact that it is stupid to hold elections in a situation of political instability. Those in favour of holding elections say that this is the main democratic value, that the situation of instability is not a hindrance, elections were held after the Revolution of Dignity during the ATO and the beginning of Russia's hybrid aggression in 2014. Who do you support?".

Almost half of the respondents (46.1%) supported the position of experts in favour of holding presidential elections, as Ukraine is fighting for freedom and democracy, so infringement of citizens' rights is unacceptable.

Only about a quarter (27.8%) of respondents tend to support those who believe that elections should be cancelled, because in the current situation democracy should take a back seat. 26.1 per cent of Ukrainian citizens found it difficult to answer this question.

Respondents were also asked two additional questions about the cancellation of the election.

The first question was formulated as if the elections had already been cancelled: "how do you feel about the fact that the elections in 2024 have been cancelled?".

42.4 per cent of Ukrainian citizens had a negative attitude towards the cancellation of the election. 37.3 per cent were in favour of cancelling the election. 20.3% found it difficult to answer.

The second question was formulated on the assumption that direct elections MAY be completely cancelled: "if the direct elections of the President of Ukraine are eventually cancelled. How would you feel about that?"

This time 40.4% of respondents were in favour of holding elections. 41.0% supported their cancellation, as Vladimir Zelensky should lead the country to victory in the war, even if it takes years. 18.6% were undecided about the answer.

The slight difference in the responses to these questions indicates the relevance of the data collected.

In the course of answering questions about the elections, on average, from a quarter to a third of respondents chose the option "I find it difficult to answer". This can be interpreted as the fear of the Ukrainian population to speak directly on political topics in the conditions of hostilities. This trend indicates a natural decline in the level of civil society activity and possible infringement of freedom of speech in the country.

The number of Ukrainian citizens who disagree with the cancellation of the presidential election is large and makes up half of the population, even though the population of Ukraine is in a difficult psycho-emotional state, and part of the society is consciously ready to refuse to express its opinion, freedom of speech and to push aside the basic democratic freedoms.

II. Evaluation of Vladimir Zelensky's performance

"On 20 May, the powers of the incumbent president of Ukraine will end. How do you assess the performance of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as president of Ukraine?"

The opinion of the respondents turned out to be polar, clearly divided into his supporters and disappointed: 36.7 per cent generally poorly assessed the president's performance. Of these, almost a third of Ukrainians (29.7 per cent) were frankly disappointed in Volodymyr Zelensky and only 7.0 per cent assessed the president's work rather badly.

34.0% in general assess the work of the head of state well. 29.3% of respondents refrained from answering the question.

III. Social well-being

The survey revealed a high level of negative social feeling of the residents of Ukraine.

Answering the question "Are you satisfied with the current situation in the country?", 86.8% of Ukrainians admitted that they are not satisfied with the current state of affairs in the country.

In addition, only 9.9 per cent of respondents chose the option "I find it difficult to answer, which indicates a consolidated position on this issue among all residents of Ukraine.

It should be noted that this question had the least political colouring and did not cause concerns among respondents.

Conclusions on the results of sociological survey in Ukraine

18-21 May 2024